Royal Ascot

NotBert wrote:Not sure if I actually fancy my chances today.

Thought Worthy
Starscope
Gatewood

could all give John Gosden a bumper day and

Global Village won't be overly displeased by the ground

4.25 - Wolferton Handicap - Listed - 1m2f - 4yo+
-----------------------------------------------

9/9 had ran no later than May 14th
8/9 had last ran at a Grade 1 course
8/9 were 4yo's
6/9 had won a Class 2 , one had won at Listed grade , one had been 2nd in a Listed race and the other had won a Class 3.
6/9 had ran no more than 8 times .
Only 1 fav has won in 9 runnings.

I'm going to start with that age stat which when given a closer look is quite a significant pointer as the split between 4yo's and those 5yo+ runners is exactly 50/50 with 75 4yo's and 75 older runners having taken their chance but no less than 8 four year olds have been successful.

Remove RETRIEVE , BEACHFIRE , KINGS GAMBIT , CON ARTIST , OTTOMAN EMPIRE , QARAABA , HYPER , BLACK SPIRIT , SIRVINO and OPERA GAL.

FRENCH NAVY is making his seasonal debut .

With 6 winning after only at least 8 previous runs , it should hopefully pay to concentrate on those so remove JUNOOB who has ran 14 times and on top of that 4 of his 5 career wins have been on the AW.

MIJHAAR has been running in Listed and G2 company but previous winners seem to be one's who are taking a step up rather than going down a grade or 2.

Of the 3 left , DANDANA ran and won at lowly Redcar LTO but on top of that his 3 wins have all been on G/F ground , something it definately won't be tomorrow.
GATEWOOD will contest favouritism and certainly has done little wrong so far , winning his 2 races this season , both Cl2's over the 10f.
Hard to say if the G/S will suit as he has yet to encounter it , he has future entries in G2 and 3 events so i imagine he's quite highly thought off.
KIRTHILL is the other to be considered , a winner over 10f and , importantly , on G/S he does however appear to be the yards 2nd string as Fallon is on DANDANA but Ryan Moore has a 39% [9/23] strike-rate for Cumani over the past 5 season's so it may have been a difficult decision for Fallon to make as the booking of Moore is definately a positive for the stable.
hHe was disapointing LTO but was slowly into his stride and was noted as 'keeping on' when 9th of 14 but that was his seasonal debut so allowances can be made.

Summary - The future entries of GATEWOOD show the potential J Gosden's runner has and with that in mind i make him the main selection with a slight concern about the going but as he has yet to race on an easy surface he has to be given the benefit of the doubt .
The odds on offer for KIRTHILL ensures a 'saver'.

Stake 8pts @ 7/2 bog GATEWOOD
Stake 2pts @ 14/1 bog KIRTHILL

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Nobby Cheese wrote:All horse players die broke

NotBert wrote:I am no longer in the Jackpot and Placepot

Astrologer I'd have had beaten win and place, too.

NotBert wrote:Have you seen the full brother of Thought Worthy? I know which I'd take on soft over 12f

NotBert wrote:Not sure if I actually fancy my chances today.

Thought Worthy
Starscope
Gatewood

could all give John Gosden a bumper day and

Global Village won't be overly displeased by the ground

NotBert wrote:Fuck me, the two I didn't put up both win (aftertimer).

Nobby Cheese wrote:

NotBert wrote:Fuck me, the two I didn't put up both win (aftertimer).