William Hill Lincoln @ Doncaster tipping comp

Though the flat turf season in the UK starts tomorrow, the accepted start of the flat is the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster which is this Saturday, which means the first tipping comp of the turf season

Bert has been creaming his pants waiting for a donny meeting so it will be interesting to see what he finds...

Comp will be standard win or e/w selection per race for each of the 7 races on the Lincoln card at Doncaster this Saturday only, no other races.

Odds:
Abdul 6/4
bitofatwat 3/1
Bert 4/1
sheila 7/1
Kit 11/1
owzat 16/1
Any named other 22/1

50p e/w on myself please abdul

owzat wrote:50p e/w on myself please abdul

50p e/w - the confidence is staggering

R4 - 20p in the £

I will have a fiver ew on myself if thats ok.

Breakheart e/w
Bated Breath win
Irish Heartbeat e/w
Redair win
Sud Pacifique e/w
Ejteyaaz e/w
Abergavenny e/w
Sharp Sovereign e/w

kyllachy star
doncaster rover
docofthebay
hes so cool
silver tiger
denton
the galloping shoe
sharakti

All ew.

Oriental Scot
Iver Bridge Lad
Irish Heartbeat
Jimmy The Lollipop
Sud Pacifique
Loyalty
Satwa Moon
Zaplamation

all e/w

and coming into the last race Frasier is leading Abdul by 0.04 with boat following in third but looking at the market, anyone can still win this

No Wix

boat,
i haven't looked at horses for yonks.

erixter wrote:boat,
i haven't looked at horses for yonks.

Was you a backer of horses before eric? I know you like the foreign footy stuff.

Guest wrote:Bert has been creaming his pants waiting for a donny meeting

It's true, and it's here

NotBert wrote:

Guest wrote:Bert has been creaming his pants waiting for a donny meeting

It's true, and it's here

Best option is to keep your powder dry. However

The Spring Mile

Following on from a winner at 9/1 in the Gold Cup
George Guru won last week for us at about 13/8.

I am realistic and resigned to the fact that today
may well result in a loser and probably will.

The main focus is Doncaster today. It is always a tough
card but we know what we are getting.

Given the type of race I am betting in I will be delighted to
get anything out of it. REVE DE NUIT may
be underpriced here as a fit horse thats well treated so
I want to bet him but there is a doubt about the trip.

The Spring Mile – Doncaster 2.05

* The Spring Mile is a Class 2 Handicap over 8f
* Its a Consolation race for horses not in the Lincoln
* I have looked at the 19 Spring Mile races

* I have to first try and predict the draw bias
* Doncaster have had 14 similar races since 2006
* Thats 14 Handicaps with 17 or more ruinners
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 11 16 16 1 19 20 9 9 18 12 12 17 16 10
* 13 of the 14 races went to horses drawn 9 +
* Those drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 were just 1-109
* That was 2010 Lincoln winner Penitent on soft ground
* This evidence suggests low numbers are vulnerable

* I want to try and narrow this down statistically
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 0-72 record
* Horses that dropped in trip from 9f and longer were 0-96
* There were 5 winners that had ran this year
* None had 4 or more runs since January 1st
* I’d avoid exposed horses with 1 run this season
* Horses from 3yo handicaps need under 9 runs
* There were 3 past winners from 7f or shorter
* None were aged 6 or more
* REDVERS falls a bit short and I hate his draw
* He has also downgraded stables since his last run
* PRINCE OF BURMA is the wrong type
* SHAMDARLEY – A bit exposed from a 3yo handicap
* I’d have liked fewer runs for a 4yo doing this
* SHAMDARLEY has a few too many runs
* I looked at 4yo seasonal debutants from 7f
* Several run with under 6 runs those with more are 0-65
* WEAPON OF CHOICE fails that
* CAPTAIN BERTIE fails that with 10 runs
* LEVIATHAN has flaws down from 10f
* SNOW BAY – Will probably need the run
* He has a career high mark as well
* Most of his form is on sharp tracks as well
* SNOW BAY wouldnt interest me
* I looked at 4 year olds that ran within 2 weeks
* Those with 9 or more runs were 0-57
* KINGSCROFT fails that with 27 races
* ARABIAN SPIRIT – Didnt do enough last time
* KAY GEE BE is a seasonal debutant aged 8
* Very few winners his aged managed to do that
* The only ones that did had Group form before
* KAY GEE BE doesnt and I see him as unsafe
* He also has a career high mark first time out aged 8
* PERFECT CRACKER is 4 and up in distance
* That wont be easy with a 92 day break
* I dont think he has the backclass to overcome that
* MONT RAS has been the big ante post gamble
* He was 16/1 a few days ago and has been backed in
* MONT RAS is 5 and has 7 runs
* Last years winner Eton Forever had the same profile
* Both are seasonal debutants as well
* That shortlists him but he only has Class 3 backclass
* Eton Forever had Group class form before winning last year
* MONT RAS lack of backclass troubles me most

SHORTLIST

* FIRST POST – Has enough to shortlist
* He is up in class and I’d rather he wasnt
* I also wonder if his draw is a bit too high
* CROWN COUNSEL – I dont mind his profile
* REVE DE NUIT – I like his profile well raced this year
* He is badly handicapped on sand and has had recent excuses
* His Turf mark is much better
* I would like more turf form at 8f but he is a positive

Selection

REVE DE NUIT at 14/1 could be interesting. He has had
3 runs this Callender year 2 of which were in the last three weeks
and a 7 day absence looks very helpfull.
He must be one of the fittest horses here.
The dilemma is whether he is better on sand and whether he needs further.
I think he is a good risk for the following reasons.

* His rating on Grass is 11lbs lower than on Sand
* He has won a better race than this on Grass of this mark
* In terms of the trip it is a slight worry
* Last time out though he placed at a Mile at Lingfield
* That was a better class race than this was
* Lingfield is a very easy Mile and this is much stiffer
* With a long straight it will give him time to finish
* If he can place there with a fitness edge he can here
* His jockey is an interesting booking as well
* REVE DE NUIT 14/1 looks the best option

14/1 in multiple spots including s james Paddy Power Ladbrokes Coral

Same odds at bet365 but they have the extra perk of paying out 5 places so go there and each way if they still let you get a bet on with them.

Small play on STEVIE THUNDER in the Lincoln, WELL ACQUAINTED and FALKLAND as decent priced interest in the Brocklesby and maiden and might back JONNY LESTERS HAIR win and place later on. Thrown a wildly speculative but potentially shrewd wee bet at FORK HANDLES in the Rosebery

NotBert wrote:Small play on STEVIE THUNDER in the Lincoln, WELL ACQUAINTED and FALKLAND as decent priced interest in the Brocklesby and maiden and might back JONNY LESTERS HAIR win and place later on. Thrown a wildly speculative but potentially shrewd wee bet at FORK HANDLES in the Rosebery

Fuck me, what a smash and grab that nearly was

NotBert wrote:Small play on STEVIE THUNDER in the Lincoln, WELL ACQUAINTED and FALKLAND as decent priced interest in the Brocklesby and maiden and might back JONNY LESTERS HAIR win and place later on. Thrown a wildly speculative but potentially shrewd wee bet at FORK HANDLES in the Rosebery

And that feels like a fucking mugging