Re: SAT LIVE BETTING THREAD

[bitofatwat]

NANTON 6 PT LAY

That's a very brave bet, BOAT, simply because Nanton defies statistical observation. Good enough to place or better in a Cambridgeshire, Ebor and Cesarewitch in the same year, IMO. Uncommon. Has me thinking of Sergeant Cecil

The main reason i took it on is that its never won with a lay off exceeding 40 days from 14 attempts or earlier than July . Its probably a horse that need a run ot 2

[Guest]

NANTON 6 PT LAY

That's a very brave bet, BOAT, simply because Nanton defies statistical observation. Good enough to place or better in a Cambridgeshire, Ebor and Cesarewitch in the same year, IMO. Uncommon. Has me thinking of Sergeant Cecil

The main reason i took it on is that its never won with a lay off exceeding 40 days from 14 attempts or earlier than July . Its probably a horse that need a run ot 2

That I can agree with - Ebor August, Cambridge October, Ces the same would be the targets

[bitofatwat]

NANTON 6 PT LAY

That's a very brave bet, BOAT, simply because Nanton defies statistical observation. Good enough to place or better in a Cambridgeshire, Ebor and Cesarewitch in the same year, IMO. Uncommon. Has me thinking of Sergeant Cecil

The main reason i took it on is that its never won with a lay off exceeding 40 days from 14 attempts or earlier than July . Its probably a horse that need a run ot 2

That I can agree with - Ebor August, Cambridge October, Ces the same would be the targets

trainers and horses are mainly creatures of habbit imo

[NotBert]

Just an observation here but...

Ripon, the Great St Wilfrid (and before that, its consolation race)

I believe if exploited in a big field on fair ground, there is a huge advantage to a horse with a shout (it doesn't make a poor horse competitive) if
(i) it is drawn on the far side (which is now low)
(ii) it tacks over to the far rail

Two "ifs" but which have served me well over time.  The problem you have is that they break and runners tack over to the near rail in one group and this entirely negates it (also, softer ground does too).  Historically I'm inclined to back any horse drawn 16 boxes over or better (so box 1 in a 16 runner race, 1-5 in a 20) if it suits but any other position IMO pushes a jockey into the main group, near side.  Also stall 5 has four horses that need to comply and form a breakaway far side group so the further in, the more risk of it being out of your jockey's hands.

Watch and consider, consider and watch

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