What's the price of this?

My two daughters bought me the identical birthday card independent of each other.

About 5/2.

No, not joking. About 5/2

Here's why.

There are limited card outlets now and these have a limited selection. Within that limited selection, there are a scant few cards that are not ill-fitting - I doubt, for example, the classic-car driving twat at a cricket ground with the Sundays and a labrador is you, Tone.

There are verse-free and verseless cards and everything in between. You're either an extreme or a middle, so one is excluded.

You're Dad or Daddy or Father but not all three.

My reckoning is that the odds are they'll visit one of two stores and pick one of possibly only one or two cards. About 5/2, IMO.

Sounds stark but it's quite positive - they clearly thought about it, hence the match

Good reasoning, I'll accept that.
Did you know that if there are 23 people in a room there’s a 50-50 chance of two people having the same birthday.
In a room of 75 there’s a 99.9% chance of two people matching.

I did, I'm a geek, Tone, have you forgotten?

There is of course the Terry Pratchett assertion that from newspaper evidence in particular, million-to-one chances come in nine times out of ten.

"You call," he said. "Heads or-" he inspected the obverse with an air of intense concentration, "some sort of a fish with legs."
"When it's in the air," said Rincewind. Hrun grinned and flicked his thumb. The iotum rose, spinning.

"Edge," Said Rincewind, without looking at it.

Rincewind, Twoflower and Hrun stared at the coin.

"Edge it is," said Hrun. "Well, you're a wizard. So what?"

"I don't do - that sort of spell."

"You mean you can't."

Rincewind ignored this, because it was true. "Try it again," he suggested.

Hrun pulled out a fistful of coins. The first two landed in the usual manner. So did the fourth. The third landed on its edge and balanced there. The fifth turned into a small yellow caterpillar and crawled away.

Scientists have calculated that the chance of anything so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.

This must be why every time I back a team at 1/7 they draw or lose.

Nobby Cheese wrote:This must be why every time I back a team at 1/7 they draw or lose.

i tell you what,
i have studied this and you'd be amazed how often long odds-on shot don't win.
don't always lose.
but if you've layed them,
and laying a 1-2 or 1-3 is hardly gonna break the bank,
a draw will do.

If I ever do a multiple bet (bet of choice is strategic EW Lucky 15, x3 odds the win single one winner) and I pull three winners out of the bag, the fourth, should it lose, is invariably the shortest-priced selection.

I try and avoid the Premier League as much as possible (along with Luton and Tranmere for some reason) as I could stop a fucking train as well.

Here's a belter, Tone.

I'm in the car listening to the radio - Magic 1548, so the tracks on can be anything from the fifties to the nineties, essentially.

This comes on



Now this is one of those seminal tracks you find you associate with a specific event in your past. For me, this was a repeated track on a very happy coach to Paris for Arc weekend in 1995 - we went by coach two or three years until Mrs NotBert decided she was ready to take on a plane but it was the start of eleven consecutive visits and obviously a good memory.

I thought of two more in the same vein immediately - "The Winner Takes It All" by Abba takes me back to a holiday in Butlin's at the arse end of the 70s which was one of those events I was old enough to appreciate a bit of independence. Solid.

The other was this



which always reminds me (it was used as a preview soundtrack) of Leeds v Coventry City FA Cup semi final 1987, the year Coventry finally broke their duck. Friend of mine was a Winwood fan and this track was part of the soundtrack that saw out my teens along with my ending up going out with a Coventry fan the next year, a bit karmic, all good.

Now, unlinked, but to me, the intro always ran into this



as (i) they struck me as quite similar in sound from intro on and (ii) another pal of mine was a big Genesis fan and this would make the same soundtrack that saw out my teens

Consequently, in the car, I ended up singing to myself and end up on the Genesis track. 8 minutes and the third track after "Lying In The Arms Of Mary", yes, it's "Throwing It All Away" by Genesis as the last track before the news.

Go!

Lost me Bert

Nobby Cheese wrote:Lost me Bert

he lost himself by the look of things.

Nobby Cheese wrote:Lost me Bert

Basically, there is a tenuous link for me personally from "Lying In The Arms Of Mary" to "Throwing It All Away" by Genesis.

Heard the first.
Started singing the second to myself in the car.
Second ends up on the radio completely independently within 8 minutes.

NotBert wrote:

Nobby Cheese wrote:Lost me Bert

Basically, there is a tenuous link for me personally from "Lying In The Arms Of Mary" to "Throwing It All Away" by Genesis.

Heard the first.
Started singing the second to myself in the car.
Second ends up on the radio completely independently within 8 minutes.

Got it!
Million to one shot.