Scottish National

Anyone who watched the other one last week would have seen Maljimar tanking along and looking good for a place, IMO (Don't Push It had basically hacked around alongside) until he managed to cut Becher's just that little bit short second time round.

Doesn't go at Ayr, but from the same yard, Dom D'Orgeval, a former Pipe inmate that lost its way a bit but has come back to form somewhat, does take his chance and does so off the minimum 10st. Ran itself in a 3m1f chase same meeting, travelled throughout and was only beaten by a Hobbs horse that quickened up really nicely. If he gets the trip, he goes close, IMO. Big at 20s or thereabouts.

Bert wrote:Anyone who watched the other one last week would have seen Maljimar tanking along and looking good for a place, IMO (Don't Push It had basically hacked around alongside) until he managed to cut Becher's just that little bit short second time round.

Doesn't go at Ayr, but from the same yard, Dom D'Orgeval, a former Pipe inmate that lost its way a bit but has come back to form somewhat, does take his chance and does so off the minimum 10st. Ran itself in a 3m1f chase same meeting, travelled throughout and was only beaten by a Hobbs horse that quickened up really nicely. If he gets the trip, he goes close, IMO. Big at 20s or thereabouts.

Good piece bert and goog luck ....ive got way behind with spending time doing this ...but hope to post a few things later when ive sorted through my stats and stuff ....very busy day racing on good ground on a Saturday the bookies will be rubbing their hands together i reckon

c/o mathematician betting

Scottish Grand National

Scottish Grand National

AYR 3.20

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

8/1 Poker De Sivola, 9/1 Meanus Dandy, Theatrical Moment
12/1 Gone To Lunch, 14/1 Faasel, 14/1 Scots Dragoon, Merigo
16/1 Mobaasher, 16/1 That´s Rhythm, 20/1 Dom D´orgeval
20/1 Killyglen, 20/1 Lothian Falcon, 25/1 Auroras Encore
25/1 Halcon Genelardais, 25/1 Himalayan Trail, 25/1 Montero
25/1 Razor Royale, 33/1 Chiaro, Gidam Gidam 33/1 Out The Black
33/1 Superior Wisdom, According To John, 50/1 Cleni Boy 50/1 Idle Talk,
50/1 Ma Yahab, No Panic, 50/1 Present M´lord 50/1 Western Gale,
66/1 Lorum Leader, 100/1 Craiglands.
* The Scottish Grand National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992

In Nationals I am very suspicious about horses that look
underraced this year. No horse has won this race having
had under 3 runs this year so CHIARO - WESTERN GALE
LOTHIAN FALCON and HALCON GENELARDAIS have
weak profiles. Others that look underraced this year are
OUT THE BLACK, FAASEL, MERIGO, GIDAM GIDAM
CLENI BOY and IDLE TALK. I’d oppose these few horses.

Preperation is everything in Nationals and its interesting
that horses who Fell last time out or who Pulled Up had a
0-112 record in this race. You want a horse coming here
confident and in form I’d be wary of horses not finishing
or falling in their last race. ACCORDING TO JOHN fails
that as does RAZOR ROYALE - LORUM LEADER and
THAT´S RHYTHM. I would be inclined to ignore these.

You want some Experience over fences.Go back to 1998
and look at all the winners and the seconds and thirds in
this race. There are 33 win and place positions there and
the 33 horses all had the following number of chase starts.

13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21
10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17

You can see that no horse won or placed in this race
with fewer than 5 Chase starts. I would want at least
5 chase runs. SUPERIOR WISDOM doesnt have the
experience. I am also against MEANUS DANDY with
just 4 Chase starts. He is also a 7yo and only 1 winner
was that age and he had Graded form. MONTERO is
also rejected with just 4 Chase starts.

There’s been 2 recent winners that lacked Graded form
so it can be done but Neither of these were exposed so
I would be wary of horses that have ran enough times
to be classed as exposed but who haven’t got any past
form in Graded races before. I suspect these horses will
lack the class. PRESENT M´LORD - SCOTS DRAGOON
FINE BY ME - MA YAHAB are all lacking this factor.

Horses from ordinary Novice Chases have yet to win it
and all 19 that tried failed. MOBAASHER fails that and
is not for me. Tehnically POKER DE SIVOLA also fails
that when winning the 4m Cheltenham Amateur Riders
race at the Festival. You can probably forgive him that
as a Festival winner but he is only a 7 year old and they
have the worst records and it’s asking a lot for a horse
to win at Cheltenham and win this as well. If you look
at the horses that came from the Cheltenham Festival
they had a 2-68 record. None were exposed horses as
POKER DE SIVOLA is. None were 7 year olds. Both
who did it had Grade 1 form and he doesnt and what’s
possibly more interesting is that no horse that finished
1-2-3-4 at the Cheltenham festival won this race. Thats
enough to put me off POKER DE SIVOLA. Staying with
Cheltenham Festival horses THEATRICAL MOMENT
also comes from Cheltenham. We know no 7 year olds
done that and no horse has done it without a previous
run in a Grade 1 race and he lacks that. Considering all
7 year olds struggled in this race (1-44) and that winner
had more backclass THEATRICAL MOMENT doesn’t
really interest me. NO PANIC is also a 7yo and rejected.

I dont like horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter. Only 1
past winner did that and he had a run within a week. It
is why I oppose AURORAS ENCORE who also comes
from hurdles something no past winner had done. I do
not think CRAIGLANDS has the backclass to overcome
a nasty absence. HIMALAYAN TRAIL is an exposed
11 year old and these horses dont score well.

SHORTLIST

GONE TO LUNCH
KILLYGLEN
DOM D´ORGEVAL

GONE TO LUNCH is shortlistable but to have been a
really strong runner he needed to have finished better
last time and a heavy defeat knocks him back a bit. I’d
shortlist DOM D´ORGEVAL as his run last week just
gets him through the shortlist. KILLYGLEN looks one
of the better runners if he can cope with the weight

SELECTION -
DOM D´ORGEVAL 20/1 bet365 who pay 5 places

Each Way

Wouldn't have minded that short head for fourth for a cash bet or two I had but the fifth put me nicely up for the event all the same. Hope you had a few on, BOAT

Bert wrote:Wouldn't have minded that short head for fourth for a cash bet or two I had but the fifth put me nicely up for the event all the same. Hope you had a few on, BOAT

I did had the 2nd with yours got a trade on the 2nd but lost the win side on Dom. place bet on dom landed unscathed

Gutted with Dom D'orgeval yesterday.

I had it in my placepot competition on BF, and had a horse in the frame for the first first three races, which meant I would have picked up a 10 point bonus if it was placed.

Beaten for 4th by a nose, and the extra 23 points would have got me up onto the podium, into 4th place.

Rebeccas Choice on Saturday

Low weight, cut in the ground, professional jock on board, improved again for the extreme distance at Uttoxeter and revitalised this season.

Took 20s for 1/4 12345. Think that is huge

NotBert wrote:Rebeccas Choice on Saturday

Low weight, cut in the ground, professional jock on board, improved again for the extreme distance at Uttoxeter and revitalised this season.

Took 20s for 1/4 12345. Think that is huge

Jockey change from last night and by no means a bad one. If I had a choice of jockey to ride around northern tracks for extreme distances, I'd choose either Peter Buchanan (who now doesn't have a ride on the defection of Silver By Nature) or Richie McGrath. We have Richie McGrath.

Another change, Adam Wedge on it now as Richie McGrath claimed for a spare higher in the betting

Finished last of seven finishers and wasn't far from placing. Ground dried out hugely which helps the weight-carriers.

Would like to see Tidal Bay take his chance before retiring

Tidal Bay goes. I have a small piece at 25s   

I have had two horses in mind for this having won on both of them and they have a nominal coincidence that might give a bumper forecast as well.

Sam Winner was my National horse and has been rerouted to Ayr
Samstown is a pretty useful stayer from a northern yard who are very happy with him and had the intention of coming here all year.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing either - 16s for the former and 28s for the latter (5 places for each, nice). Also had a small bit, win only, on Lie Forrit, whose history is largely tied up with Campbell Gillies who tragically died on holiday on the day before his twenty-second birthday. There was an article in the Post on Sunday about him; a tale of its own.

I am in a suicide pact with Golden Chieftain

I was on it both its last two runs and for a nice return on both occasions. Have a look at what happened. It is only four pounds worse in.

Tell me what happened Bert.

"It started when I was a child and a man forced himself on me in a public toilet, I was scared but I liked it and went back three times in a week..."

Well, Tone, there was a long distance chase at Exeter on Valentine's Day and the ground was bottomless, they shouldn't have been racing and they missed out half the fences on the course because of the unholy fucking state of the ground.  Anyway, with about three quarters of a mile to go, Powell goes for home on it and nothing left in the race can respond.  By the time he comes out of the back bend, with two fences in the home straight in front of him, he is a lengthening 20 lengths in front and travelling like a Sunday driver.  And like a Sunday driver, it all went wrong and he tipped up at the second last (which would have been the third last but they'd omitted the last).  The third horse, now in second, also fell at the same fence about a minute later...  The only one left standing, the favourite, all but walked over the now last and had it had to jump the actual last, there's have been no finishers - it had Johnson kicking and bucking like a 70s washing machine on spin while he was going up and down on the spot.

Next run was in the Midlands Grand National a couple of weeks later the day after the end of Cheltenham.  Four miles around Uttoxeter, he hacks around, takes it up after the second last and after four miles, 7 lengths up and again, with the race in the bag, full of running against the remaining horses coming in at a plod, fucking tips up again in spitting distance of the finish line with fuck all left to jump.

Result - 5s, race in bag, fell; 16s, race in the bag, fell.  Distance travelled - approximately seven miles.  I don't think it's possible to travel further in two races and not draw a fucking penny...

FWIW, Colin Tizzard trains.  Cue Card fell in the Gold Cup when right there, three out, when he was on a £1m bonus if he won.  It seems March was even more of a cunt of a month for him, but come April at Aintree, they started making amends.

it had Johnson kicking and bucking like a 70s washing machine on spin while he was going up and down on the spot.

May or may not have got around, was there or thereabouts until three out but probably needed it a bit more like treacle