Epsom

It's coming...

First early impressions of the Derby is that if Henry Cecil sends Bullet Train, it goes well. My favourite trial to take a horse from is Lingfield - they are all still babies after all and if they get on with Lingfield, they'll get on with Epsom. How well I remember Kahyasi, High-Rise and User Friendly, all of which went for Derby or Oaks, all of which won suitably well at Lingfield and all of which won for me at Epsom at fancy prices (14s, 20s and 10s when I backed it immediately after its trial).

The three-year-olds don't seem a vintage middle distance bunch, tbh, and Bullet Train is green enough to improve into serious Derby reckoning with another month on its back while winning well enough at Lingfield to already merit it a place in the line-up. Interesting to see whether Henry puts his head on the block and definitely runs him.

I think he'll be going. Took some of the 8s about (there is 9s elsewhere) as well as 35/1 for the Cecil Oaks/Derby double. Seems I will get both Aviate and Timepiece for my money in the Oaks which is on offer at 5/2 (all these are with Skybet).

I've decided that Aviate carries my Oaks money. Having looked over the Musidora I think without the run she had she'd have won a bit easier. So there's my two for Epsom. Trains and planes, just missing an automobile. Let's hope they all get there.

Bert wrote:I think he'll be going. Took some of the 8s about (there is 9s elsewhere) as well as 35/1 for the Cecil Oaks/Derby double. Seems I will get both Aviate and Timepiece for my money in the Oaks which is on offer at 5/2 (all these are with Skybet).

I've decided that Aviate carries my Oaks money. Having looked over the Musidora I think without the run she had she'd have won a bit easier. So there's my two for Epsom. Trains and planes, just missing an automobile. Let's hope they all get there.

Cecil double now 28s, 2/1 he wins the Oaks alone, Bullet Train now 7s, Aviate 4s.

Further shortening as one time AP favourite St Nicholas Abbey is out

No complaints, no hard luck stories. Lightning fast Derby though and 7 lengths is up there with Shergar, Troy, Reference Point and Slip Anchor for ease of victory. Could be bloody useful.

Could be bloody useful - wins the Arc...

How good Harbinger?

Right, I've found an Epsom winner since this thread began and I'm going back to that well this year.

The Derby - I have an immense respect for Andre Fabre - he sends horses all over the world yet refuses to cheat as the locals do in the States, say (invariably, at the Breeder's Cup or some such, every horse on the card, including foreign interests, will be running on Bute and/or Lasix, both of which allow a horse to be pushed beyond safe limits. They can, in fact, ruin a horse. The one yard that will not use them is Fabre's).

He rarely, if ever, sends one to the Epsom Derby; if he sends an older horse to Epsom, it wins the Coronation Cup; he has an Oaks in his locker; and, in 2011, he put teenager Mikael Barzalona on the back of Pour Moi, a horse he waxed lyrical over, and was vindicated by Barzalona appearing on the Late Late Late Show to win the Derby in the shadow of the post and yet celebrate before getting there, the cheeky get.

He's sending unbeaten Ocovango this year. He's not there to make up the numbers and he's put another talented kid on board. 8s may still be available in a place or two.

The Oaks, meanwhile, is on Friday, still in May, which for Epsom always strikes me like having Christmas on the 19th of December. Anyway, it is very much a lesser relation these days and has become prone to wins from posh fuckers from the Home Counties with tidy nags in unfashionable yards rather than the Magnier/Maktoum circus. Doesn't make it any less of a race, and you have to be decent to win it. It's 21 years since User Friendly won having not raced as a 2yo, and 8 since Eswarah did the same, campaigned after a debut maiden win at Newbury, then a trial win, to be the Oaks winner.

User Friendly was a monumental nag, winning her first six and almost breaking the hoodoo of Leger/Arc in the same year. Eswarah, meanwhile, won the same maiden that Banoffee did. Banoffee won her subsequent trial also. A bit of an unknown, I'd take anywhere up to 8s again to see her take her tilt.

EW singles and double, get 1/4 odds, do your own fucking legwork, come on.

Right, this year I'm going a bit for form over reputation and history over all else.

History first. I was, still am, a big fan of Luca Cumani. He has, in his lengthy career, sent a mere six horses to the Oaks. Three have finished second, one a third. He hasn't sent one there in 23 years, apparently. This year, he has Volume and I will take the chance that this Newbury Trial winner turns it up (fucking hell, I'm Derek Thompson) at 16s or so. That's Friday.

Form second. I fancy Australia, Kingman and so forth might be outstanding. That's as maybe but £2.5m guineas purchase Hydrogen was also a talking horse that like hydrogen, has gone invisible. Although I am a fan of the Lingfield Derby Trial, the undoubted best trial for finding winners is invariably the Dante up at York. The Grey Gatsby won it this year, went to Chantilly and won the French Derby at the weekend. In second place, three-quarters of a length back, was Arod. Spencer reckons he might have won had he been harder on him but the horse is still learning its way and he wasn't going to spoil it for Epsom. He has by all accounts improved since and is a fancy price as Australia is skewing the market. The kicker? Hydrogen is in the same ownership. When trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam was asked how Hydrogen's Derby prep was going, he replied "I might have a better one and you own that too" . 16s or so. That's Saturday

Volume Oaks
Arod Derby

1/4 odds just about everywhere

Volume finishes an honourable third, could have been second (lost on the bob), led and put an awful lot of big names to the sword. Good run, stayed on for pressure behind a good winner and may be a Leger horse. Went off 9s.

One in...

 

Arod finishes fourth, never nearer, which fucking smarts a bit, tbh.

Already took the last ticket at 20s a week or two back, took a bit more at 12s (14s available but I had some online loose change) on Christophermarlowe this morning, trial this afternoon at Lingfield which isn't the fanciest trial but should rubber stamp credentials of acting on the uncommon twists, turns, bends and rises of Epsom.

NotBert wrote:Already took the last ticket at 20s a week or two back, took a bit more at 12s (14s available but I had some online loose change) on Christophermarlowe this morning, trial this afternoon at Lingfield which isn't the fanciest trial but should rubber stamp credentials of acting on the uncommon twists, turns, bends and rises of Epsom.

Lost and out to 33s. Dettori states he didn't go on the soft (a typical American bred in that respect). Wouldn't put me off him for Epsom where you'd have to fancy it turning up drier. Trials week approaching, worth seeing if he drifts further...

Couldn't find anything in what was a difficult Oaks this year. Arod, given for the Derby last year, won a group race on the undercard and impressively so and looks a decent one to follow over a mile - yes, I was on.

I have an inkling for Elm Park for the Derby. Third in the Dante behind the front two in the betting but 2f further tomorrow and the other two had the benefit of a run before it (Elm Park was pulled out of the Guineas on the day). Outstanding as a 2yo, chances as a 3yo. 7s uniform.

Saved you all a read this year. Not even close in either race