Saturday racing

Guest Sat May 29, 2010 1:09 pm

Managed to pull a few quid out of thin air on a couple of dog bets this afternoon while waiting to pick up one of the kids and so have "reinvested" some of the proceeds.

Rain has arrived at Haydock, btw - one of the worst draining courses in the country, so it won't slip right through as it would at say, Longchamp on the alluvial silt.

Speculations today:
High Standing 20 Hay - race looks quite soft, IMO, should really win on its known form
Quarrel 230 Hay - possibly well in on a line through Angel's Pursuit
Munsarim 245 Nmk - because the rest of the field looks shit
Becqu Adoree 30 Hay - not the worst gamble in the world to see this horse be better than the grade it's pitched today
Bagamoyo 320 Nmk - course form, good return first out, value price
Beckermet 325 Catt - fuck me, historically this would carry these and still win. New yard that gets results, interesting
Main Aim 330 Hay - doubles up from last year, rain has arrived to take out the jar
Urban Poet 445 Hay - because it's 28/1 and I still get first four home

All win and place, small multiples as well

bitofatwat Sat May 29, 2010 1:20 pm

I'd imagine all of them will give you a good run for your money bert. Nothing jumps out thats says no.

Guest Sat May 29, 2010 1:22 pm

My two "lively at a price" in there, IMO, are Quarrel and Bagamoyo. Would like to think they'll both place at worst and so the half-unit place double covers the bet.

bitofatwat Sat May 29, 2010 1:23 pm

HAYDOCK 3.00

EBF Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes (Listed Race)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m3f200y

11/4 Barshiba, 9/2 Becqu Adoree, 5/1 Les Fazzani
5/1 Polly´s Mark, 11/2 Rosika, 7/1 Flame Of Gibraltar
20/1 Three Moons, 25/1 Cassique Lady
33/1 Victoria Montoya, 40/1 All Annalena.

Never done this race before. It’s a Listed Class race for
fillies just short of 12 furlongs. There are just 7 renewals
of this race and no identical races elsewhere.
This race has always been won by a 4 year old.
They have won all 7 renewals so I would be wary of older horses.
That puts me off CASSIQUE LADY-VICTORIA MONTOYA -
BARSHIBA - LES FAZZANI.
We know this is a strong race for seasonal debutants.
If you look at horses who have run this season in the past 7
years you find none of then had more than 13 starts.
That is another pointer against the horses above.
ALL ANNALENA did not do enough last time.
THREE MOONS has to go with 1 run this year and up in distance.
POLLYS MARK has some chance but I want a debutant.

The ideal profile is this -

* 4 year old
* Seasonal debutant
* At least 3 career starts
* Running over 10f-13f last time
* At least 2 career wins
* There were 4 horses with that profile
* These 4 horses finished W W W W
* They won in 2009 2007 2005 2003

* BECQU ADOREE comes out well
* FLAME OF GIBRALTA is close to making that
* She just lacks a second win
* Dont rule her out though
* The 2007 winner came from the same trial race as her
* ROSIKA also comes from that same trial race
* ROSIKA is statistically perfect

The problem you have is ROSIKA wont be proven on
the ground if it changes as expected. The rain brings
POLLY’S MARK more into it. Given all the options I’d
still be happier with an unraced 4 year old so given that
BECQU ADOREE has form on the ground I will go with
her. BECQU ADOREE is the selection.

Guest Sat May 29, 2010 1:25 pm

I don't do well in girls' races by and large, don't know why. The higher in the pattern they are (Oaks, Guineas, for example) I do all right but G3 and listed, no, I seem to struggle. bounce

Guest Sat May 29, 2010 2:03 pm

Bert wrote:

Speculations today:
High Standing 20 Hay - race looks quite soft, IMO, should really win on its known form - WIN 9/4
Quarrel 230 Hay - possibly well in on a line through Angel's Pursuit
Munsarim 245 Nmk - because the rest of the field looks shit
Becqu Adoree 30 Hay - not the worst gamble in the world to see this horse be better than the grade it's pitched today
Bagamoyo 320 Nmk - course form, good return first out, value price
Beckermet 325 Catt - fuck me, historically this would carry these and still win. New yard that gets results, interesting
Main Aim 330 Hay - doubles up from last year, rain has arrived to take out the jar
Urban Poet 445 Hay - because it's 28/1 and I still get first four home

All win and place, small multiples as well

bitofatwat Sat May 29, 2010 2:23 pm

Guest Sat May 29, 2010 2:33 pm

Bert wrote:

Speculations today:
High Standing 20 Hay - race looks quite soft, IMO, should really win on its known form - WIN 9/4
Quarrel 230 Hay - possibly well in on a line through Angel's Pursuit - UNPL - never really ran a step
Munsarim 245 Nmk - because the rest of the field looks shit
Becqu Adoree 30 Hay - not the worst gamble in the world to see this horse be better than the grade it's pitched today
Bagamoyo 320 Nmk - course form, good return first out, value price
Beckermet 325 Catt - fuck me, historically this would carry these and still win. New yard that gets results, interesting
Main Aim 330 Hay - doubles up from last year, rain has arrived to take out the jar
Urban Poet 445 Hay - because it's 28/1 and I still get first four home

All win and place, small multiples as well

Guest Sat May 29, 2010 2:52 pm

Bert wrote:

Speculations today:
High Standing 20 Hay - race looks quite soft, IMO, should really win on its known form - WIN 9/4
Quarrel 230 Hay - possibly well in on a line through Angel's Pursuit - UNPL - never really ran a step
Munsarim 245 Nmk - because the rest of the field looks shit - UNPL - honestly have no idea what Richard Hills's instructions were, but they weren't that
Becqu Adoree 30 Hay - not the worst gamble in the world to see this horse be better than the grade it's pitched today
Bagamoyo 320 Nmk - course form, good return first out, value price
Beckermet 325 Catt - fuck me, historically this would carry these and still win. New yard that gets results, interesting
Main Aim 330 Hay - doubles up from last year, rain has arrived to take out the jar
Urban Poet 445 Hay - because it's 28/1 and I still get first four home

All win and place, small multiples as well

Guest Sat May 29, 2010 3:07 pm

Bert wrote:

Speculations today:
High Standing 20 Hay - race looks quite soft, IMO, should really win on its known form - WIN 9/4
Quarrel 230 Hay - possibly well in on a line through Angel's Pursuit - UNPL - never really ran a step
Munsarim 245 Nmk - because the rest of the field looks shit - UNPL - honestly have no idea what Richard Hills's instructions were, but they weren't that
Becqu Adoree 30 Hay - not the worst gamble in the world to see this horse be better than the grade it's pitched today - UNPL - eased when beaten, hats off to the winner. The precept "you can give anything away except ground" has never been so well demonstrated
Bagamoyo 320 Nmk - course form, good return first out, value price
Beckermet 325 Catt - fuck me, historically this would carry these and still win. New yard that gets results, interesting
Main Aim 330 Hay - doubles up from last year, rain has arrived to take out the jar
Urban Poet 445 Hay - because it's 28/1 and I still get first four home

All win and place, small multiples as well

Guest Sat May 29, 2010 3:25 pm

Bert wrote:

Speculations today:
High Standing 20 Hay - race looks quite soft, IMO, should really win on its known form
- WIN 9/4
Quarrel 230 Hay - possibly well in on a line through Angel's Pursuit
- UNPL - never really ran a step
Munsarim 245 Nmk - because the rest of the field looks shit
- UNPL - honestly have no idea what Richard Hills's instructions were, but they weren't that
Becqu Adoree 30 Hay - not the worst gamble in the world to see this horse be better than the grade it's pitched today
- UNPL - eased when beaten, hats off to the winner. The precept "you can give anything away except ground" has never been so well demonstrated
Bagamoyo 320 Nmk - course form, good return first out, value price
- UNPL - There, didn't get home - I'm dying here...
Beckermet 325 Catt - fuck me, historically this would carry these and still win. New yard that gets results, interesting.
- UNPL - No show at all, it seems.
Main Aim 330 Hay - doubles up from last year, rain has arrived to take out the jar
- WIN 2/1
Urban Poet 445 Hay - because it's 28/1 and I still get first four home

All win and place, small multiples as well

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