13/11/10 RACE OF THE DAY

Lets see if we can get this one sorted a few stats to get the ball rolling add any comments , positives, negatives etc to the thread

Paddy Power chase 2.35 Cheltenham 13th November
The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes tomorrow Saturday 13th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s November meeting. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander in recent years.
The ground was going Good to soft at the end of Friday with no further rain forecast
Blue Positive Red negative purple Place chances Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6 & 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-12-66) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-13-90).None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to have run in the past 10 years have made the frame.
Country origin Cheltenham 2005 - 2009 - November - 89 races in total
(IRE) Bred - 53 winners (60% of races)
Strike rate - 53/544 - 10% S/R - LSP -£184.92
(FR) Bred - 18 winners (20% of races)
Strike rate - 18/224 - 8% S/R - LSP -£98.01
(GB) Bred - 9 winners (10% of races)
Strike rate - 9/247 - 4% S/R - LSP -£152.38
(GER) Bred - 7 winners (8% of races)
Strike rate - 7/36 - 19% S/R - LSP +£22.08
(USA) Bred - 2 winners (2% of races)
Strike rate - 2/36 - 6% S/R - LSP +£17.20
Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 8-8-68
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 2-16-88 Higher weights hold the call in this with 8 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more. Top Weight: 594504FPP6 (0-1-10)

Official Ratings
5 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher and they accounted for approximately 31.4% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (last 6 had run in 2 or less)
8 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
7 of 10 winners (last 4) were second season chasers
6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 4 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
6 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season)
5 of 10 winners ran at Cheltenham last time out Great Endevour /Long Run/Edgbriar/Pigeon Island/Gwanko/Passato (Ger)

Other Races
zeturf.com Handicap Chase (Edgbriar): 1F43F2 (1-3-6)
Boylesports Gold Cup winner (Poquelin): 12 (1-1-2)
Carlisle Intermediate Chase winner (Little Josh ): 1 (1-0-1)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Tchios Polos): 20 (0-1-2)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Great Endeavour): 477PP (0-0-5)
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival
Great endeavour (Bryn Group chase 1st) also ran (Sunny Hill Boy2nd) Gwanko 5th) The Sawyer 9th). RSA Chase Long Run 3rd and lil Josh 6th) Arkle chase – Mad Max 4th – Grand Annual Pidgeon Island 1st)
2 of 10 winners ran in Jewson Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 16
(Door Boy Fell in the Jewson Awesome George – Pulled up)
(Finger on the Pulse won the Jewson in 2008)
2 of 10 winners ran in 2M 4½F Novice Chase at this meeting, finishing 31
(Poquelen was second in the paddy Power to Tranquil Sea in this race last year and is the only runner who went in it!)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Boylesports Gold Cup, finishing 1F
Poquelin won the 2009 Boylesport and Gwanko 33/1 blundered badly and never recovered)
Trainers
The Pipe stable (5-3-15) have accounted for 5 of the last 10 winners of the race but all 5 were under Martin Pipe’s tenure and David Pipe (0-1-7) has only saddled one placed finisher from 7 representatives.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-12), Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-5) and Nicky Henderson (1-1-10), and Eddie O’Grady Runs Catch Me (1-0-1) have each trained the winner of the race in the last 10 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-4-15) has yet to train the winner of this but has come close with 4 seconds in past decade. Philip Hobbs (0-3- has had two seconds and two thirds in the period while Il Duce provided Alan King (0-2-4) with 2 places.
Irish based trainers (1-1-15) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win last year, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980. That does not mean they are not fielding a good set of animals in this race
Price
7 of 10 winners have come from the first 3 in the betting Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of the last 10 renewals and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 15.75. Again this market changes rapidly near the off and
Summary: looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7- Carrying 10-13+ - Officially rated 146 or higher - Having first or second run of the season - - Won a chase at Cheltenham - Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F Previously run less than 10 times over fences - Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases- Second season chaser - Ran in a chase at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival - From the first 3 in the betting (especially the favourite)

No winner older than 7 since 2002 is a huge statistic, IMO, as is "you can expand that to 9 year olds and it's worse again" (1975) which, since there is only one 10yo or more, isn't too much of a factor but does show the nature of the race - it's a stepping stone to better things (Gay Trip was a dual winner and once won a National, for example)

Value to be had tomorrow, I fancy. Irrespective of ability, I can never bring myself to back a 5yo chaser - still a bairn, FFS, so for me, the fav is out.

I think Poquelin is too big a price. That's where my pennies are going, I reckon

I voted Long Run but as we're looking for value I'm going for Pigeon Island, he likes cheltenham and is getting shitloads of weight today, last time he ran off this weight in a G3 at chelters he strolled in, could be set up for this race and at 25s with 4 places that'll do me.

Ive shorlisted these 4 in order of preference ....i'll dutch and lay the fav to hopefully give me a free bet or a loss
Mad Max
Poquelin
Catch Me
Edgbriar

Abdul Kowalski wrote:I voted Long Run but as we're looking for value I'm going for Pigeon Island, he likes cheltenham and is getting shitloads of weight today, last time he ran off this weight in a G3 at chelters he strolled in, could be set up for this race and at 25s with 4 places that'll do me.

Only discareded the fav long run on his wins on sharp tracks yet to run on a galloping track and age tbh

Fuck it. You think you've been crafty getting EW front five and he's fifth, looking all the world as if fourth might be a possible and it paddles the last, flat-footed and finishes sixth

Apparently it did finish fifth...

I was happy enough with free bet, well i greened up for a few coppers thanks to Mad Max