Euro 2012

First bet.

The country who do well in this (and fucking stink in the World Cup) tends to be Russia - historically a winner-to-last-4 team. They've drawn a bit of a soft group which they are 6/4 to win, I believe. That's not the bet. They should qualify and make the knockout stages and are 22/1 to win it (EW 1/2 1-2). That's not the bet.

A top scorer bet is invariably EW 1/4 1-2-3-4 and given
(i) Poland are hosts which is why they are there because they are roundly shit otherwise and have as much chance of qualifying in their own right as Scotland - their 2010 World Cup qualifying was spectacular for getting pissed all over in a group of the Czech Republic and Slovakia (one country split into two who nevertheless both kicked fuck out them) Slovenia (one of the former Yugoslavian nations that separated so thinly that their populations can be covered in a census in about 45 minutes and who kicked fuck out of them) Northern Ireland (six counties, four goals and four points taken off them, Northern Ireland, the team who couldn't score, ever, managed three at home, one away and yes, kicked fuck out of them) and San Marino (they twatted the Italian postmen, 12 of their 19 qualifying goals in those two games). W3 (two v San Marino and one vthe Czechs on their traditional underachieving "what went wrong again"? mode) D2 (Northern Ireland at home, FFS and Slovenia at home) and lost 5. Ranked 65 in the world, they are thirteen places below Panama, a country that is famous for a canal and so isn't well known for soil-based sporting endeavour. Scotland are five places higher again.
(ii) Greece, with the exception of Euro 2004, tend to turn up self-consciously at major tournaments and start feeling their zips to see if their fly is open and by the time they realise it isn't, they're already out, and
(iii) the Czech Republic are saying "we used to have a great side, even with Baros [a top scorer once himself] in it. Shame we won fuck all." Their second choice keeper, for example, is Jaroslav Drobny, who by my reckoning is past his best as (i) he is a tennis player who defected and won Wimbledon in the 50s as a naturalised Egyptian, and (ii) has been dead a decade. They're past their best. Their qualification relied on a late penalty to eke out a draw against Scotland and a playoff win against the forty people who live in Montenegro. They're past their best.
then you have to fancy the possibility that Russia will get out of the group (even though after five years, Dick Advocaat still doesn't speak a word of Russian and takes a new job on July 1, they have a solid record under him) and there's a possibility that one of their squad could get one in each game at least. That'll be good enough for a place so as a speculative bet

Roman Pavlyuchenko (no, really) at 66/1 EW

"Their second choice keeper, for example, is Jaroslav Drobny, who by my reckoning is past his best as (i) he is a tennis player who defected and won Wimbledon in the 50s as a naturalised Egyptian, and (ii) has been dead a decade"

He has five caps, Tone. Since he died in 2001 (in fucking Tooting, of all places) I don't reckon his shot stopping would have been up to scratch

How fucking great a bet was this originally? After a game and a half it was spot on. They'd twatted the Czechs, Pav got one, set one up after getting fifteen minutes as Advocaat persisted with Kerzhakov who actually missed more attempts on goal without scoring in one game than anyone in Euro Finals history (seven, I think but no, although that sounds like one of my gags, it isn't, it's actually fucking true).

After 135 minutes of group, they were already through. After 270 minutes of group, they were out. Fucking bottle merchants let Poland equalise in the second half and then lost to Greece. Advocaat let Kerzhakov draw a blank for three games, Pav got a cameo appointment on each showing and was stranded on one and Dzagoev, the other striker, despite their failing to get out of the group, was in a six-way tie for the outright top goalscorer so was a winner, win at a sixth of stake and place at two-thirds.

You know why Advocaat once managed Rangers? Because he's a cunt.