Autumn Treble

Cambridgeshire
Arc
Ces

One of my favourite bets of the year. Will post later...

Cambridgeshire - I'm going to take a huge leap of faith in this. I think it's wide open and I always draw on a fair trial for this which is run at Newbury over a furlong further. If you watch the race, Licence To Till makes a lot of the running and has an awful lot of the field stretched before succumbing. I doubt it'll be the same affair on Saturday - there'll be others in the vanguard so there'll be someone else doing the pacework as well - and despite the consolation race's result, I maintain the low numbers (i.e. the far side) are at an advantage the faster the ground is. Big price.

Arc - course record last year, Ascot and Baden Baden wins show Danedream isn't a back number this timearound and she is the one to beat. The Arc record was previously held by the most exceptional performance I've ever seen when Peintre Celebre quickened and having quickened, found a further gear that the rest of the field were unaware existed. Happy to follow in again a horse that was quicker than this:



If you can't pick it out in the field, you always end up going back in the video and thinking "where the fuck did that come from?". They weren't a field of mugs either.

Cesarewitch - Going back to Goodwood, flip start, 2m5f and possible non-stayer absolutely bolts up. Turns out it has stall problems that obviously a flip start obviates and the horse improves immensely for a substantial trip. This is confirmed by black type in the G2 Doncaster Cup over2m2f. Ces is 2m2f. Consequently, Hurricane Higgins is already by definition a Group horse in a handicap. Not a flip start at Newmarket but a big field to get settled in.

Lot of places going front 5 again today, with SkyBet going for front 6

That time again. My three at the minute are

Educate Cambridgeshire
Novellist Arc
Tiger Cliff Ces

Haven't modified that opinion

Taking on the draw at Newmarket and convinced that Educate has another big handicap in it.

The Arc I am a great believer in other than deluges, Longchamp is quick and Novellist showed that not to be a problem by a whole two seconds faster than Nathaniel's course record at Ascot.

Tiger Cliff should have won the Ascot Stakes, did win the Ebor and with a bit in hand IMO. Same for the Ces, for me.

14/1 AP start, one down, two to go  

One of the luckier races in the calendar for me - off the top of my head, Mellottie (20s) Halling (11s) Pasternak (11s) Formal Decree (10s) Blue Monday (10s) Quinlan Terry (10s) and now Educate (14s, some 10s on the day too). Not sure if I'm missing one as well. That's ahead on that race for a lifetime and a fucking long one at that

Novellist out the Arc.  I don't fucking know what it is with Wohler's yard but Danedream breaks the course record one year and then in consecutive years his yard falls sick the first week in October.

If there's no sinister element to it, I'd suggest he's a bit fucking lax.  Once is unlucky.  Twice is a pattern.  Fuming as you can imagine - I fucking hate losing but even more so without getting even a fucking run.

Have backed Ocovango on the grounds that non-Japanese horses might come out at inflated prices on the PMU and he always puts in the effort. Consequently, I think he might be that starvation word, "value".

Cornrow for the Cambs tomorrow Saturday
Avenir Certain for the Arc, week Sunday
Swnymor for the Ces, two weeks away

Starts this week

Bronze Angel currently in my sights for the Cambridge (an unprecendented third win in non-consecutive years)
Treve looks like she'll treble up in the Arc as well
I like William of Orange for the Ces at the mo

NotBert wrote:14/1 AP start, one down, two to go  

One of the luckier races in the calendar for me - off the top of my head, Mellottie (20s) Halling (11s) Pasternak (11s) Formal Decree (10s) Blue Monday (10s) Quinlan Terry (10s) and now Educate (14s, some 10s on the day too).  Not sure if I'm missing one as well.  That's ahead on that race for a lifetime and a fucking long one at that

I have an uncle named Terry Quinlan

What's he like over 9f with a man whipping him to a big finish, Tone?

NotBert wrote:What's he like over 9f with a man whipping him to a big finish, Tone?